Sports + Gambling + Nerdiness = Fantasy Sports
I get to use my supposed smarts to bet my hard earned money on sports I love to watch. It's really the best of all 3 worlds. But, certain fantasy sports require differing levels or nerdiness. And if your scared of probabilities and/or Excel spreadsheets, look away now. Instead, here's a blog about puppies. But those brave enough to stomach a little math, I'll explain.
First, for those that have never played fantasy sports, its pretty simple. Pick a bunch of players to make a team for yourself. When they do good, when they score points, then you score points. Score more points than the person/people you're playing, you win. Hooray.
Fantasy football is your entry-level fantasy sport. Your team only consists of about 9 players. You only play about 15 games. And there's a frustrating amount of luck that goes into it. Guys get hurt. Often. No name guys do awesome. Often. People who's team sucked for 13 weeks end up winning the last 2 to claim the top prize. It's the scratch-off ticket of fantasy sports. Minimal effort, minimal research and minimal smarts are required.
Fantasy baseball is the more elitist of the 2 main fantasy sports. 20+ players, playing an entire 162 game season. But the greatest difference between fantasy football and baseball may be that all the football leagues basically just count "points." A player scores a touchdown? You get 6 points. A player runs for 10 yards? You get 1 point. Your player nearly gets suspended for sending picture messages of his dong to a former team employee? Then you're an idiot for drafting him. But, the point is that there's a single currency to go around.
With fantasy baseball, it's usually not that easy. Each of your hitters can get you points in 5 different ways, and each of your pitchers can get you points in 5 other ways. At the end of the season, you get ranked in each of those 10 categories.
Fellow fantasy nerds. Yes, I know there's hundreds of variations you can apply to each of these fantasy sports, but I'm just trying to keep it simple so I don't lose 60% of my readership (aka, 6 people).
And all these stats can be evaluated in different manners, with different people putting different valuations on different stats. Is 1 homerun equal to more or less than 1 steal for your team? Maybe your team . . . . aaaaaaand I'm probably losing you by now. So, let's cut to the chase. Fantasy baseball usually requires an upper level of nerdiness to succeed, and am am certainly willing to accept that level. Case in point - my pre-draft spreadsheet.
Every fantasy season starts with a draft of players, and before the draft, everyone has their own set of player rankings, usually just stolen from someplace like Yahoo or ESPN or whatever website is actually hosting the league. The rankings will predict out the various players' stats for the season, and there will usually be 10 columns of stats - 5 for the pitchers and 5 for the hitters. Me? I've come up with my own algorithm for player rankings, where my spreadsheet has something like 22 columns for both hitters and pitchers (a cool 44 or so total). The equations are now based on 5 years' worth of fantasy baseball I've accumulated. They contain Alan-original stats, like FVOAP (Fantasy Value Over Average Player . . . obviously). There's tabs upon tabs of data. So much so, that each year when I break out the spreadsheet to repopulate the cells with the new year's predictions, I usually need 20 minutes to figure out what the hell my own equations mean.
And when I draft, I like to have 2 laptops going. Why? Because chicks dig it. That's why.
So, how have my deft drafting skills fared, based on my absurdly large pre-draft spreadsheet and accompanying equations that can even make my own head spin?
Since I've been doing my nerd sheet, I've had an average finish of better than 4th out of 10. In a single year? Nothing special. But over the long haul? Not too shabby. And when your putting your money on the line, over and over again, that's really what you're hoping for. Be better than average, and you'll end up winning money more often than losing it.
So every March now, I go through the same routine of repopulating my spreadsheet, tweaking the algorithms, and preparing for draft. This past March, I was going through my routine at home. My friend Matt was over and was looking in on my draft war room and came up with a fairly logical revelation.
How much time do you spend on this crap?
I don't know. A fair amount of hours.
And how much money is this for?
I'm in 4 different leagues, and I end up putting up about $130 for all 4 leagues
Why don't you do that kind of research for something that might actually make you some money? Like stocks
Ummm, I don't know. It scares me and it doesn't excite me in the same way that evaluating the worth of Jacoby Ellsbury's 70 steals versus Mariano Rivera's 40 saves does?
And for the longest time, that seemed like the logical adult next step, despite my fear of it. Both fantasy investing and stock investing require large amounts of research. Both require you to examine charts and graphs and oodles of numbers. Both require lots of patience to watch your investments properly play out, while also requiring you to perfect the timing of your trades. Both require you to place your own valuations on the potential investments. And both require you to have some balls with your money. Though with stock investing, I don't expect anyone to start trash talking via email.
So, it's time to get my Gordon Gecko on, bow to the altar of the almighty American greed, and buy some stocks. (I've never actually seen Wallstreet. I assume that reference actually makes sense). I've read my basic research. I've registered for Scottrade. And as of tonight, I've popped my investment cherry. And yes, it did hurt a little the first time . . . ya know, parting with my money.
I've had a 401K at my job for the last 5 years, but that doesn't count as doing something new and investing. That investment is basically going to to flow the way the market flows. Give John Hancock my money and watch it hopefully accrue 7% or more over the next 35 years. No balls required. It's like looking for a gambling rush, flying to Vegas, and playing nothing but penny slots.
So I've put in my first order for stock. We're starting a little on the safe side and buying 10 shares of Berkshire Hathaway. I may be an investing novice, but I do know it's a pretty sure bet to just do whatever the hell Warren Buffet is doing. He's worth $2.6 billion. I think I can trust him. And I can only assume that in 40 years, I'll be worth the same.
Artist's rendition of my life at 70 years old
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